Strategic risk analysis – a field version

Abstract

Most people agree that preparing for the future is necessary to excel, but doing it effectively is difficult. All risk analyses offer some foresight, but tools based on classic probabilistic calculus open for deception through apparent accuracy in some situations because ambiguity and fuzziness is largely ignored. We believe this is particularly a problem in strategic settings as it may lead to less informed decision making. We also believe that strategic risk analysis can hardly be performed well without matching risk management actions to the organization’s characteristics. We therefore present a new approach towards strategic risk analysis that remedies the two aforementioned problems. The purpose is to analyze strategic risks in a meaningful and practical way, yet capable of handling the broader scope of strategic risk. The approach is illustrated by a case.