Comparing niche‐ and process‐based models to reduce prediction uncertainty in species range shifts under climate change

Abstract

This is one of the first studies to rigorously compare two independent modelling approaches using the same species and climate change scenarios. Predictions from the two models are surprisingly different, but both highlight the importance of migration for species persistence. In the past decade, there has been a growing body of literature focused on predicting how species will respond to predicted shifts in climatic conditions....