Core–periphery disparities in Europe: is there a link between political and economic divergence?

Abstract

This contribution examines whether and how economic divergence between the EU core and its southern and eastern peripheries relates to the emerging political divergence within the EU. Data show that persistent and growing economic disparities are linked to EU member states moving apart with regard to their democratic quality, but not as straightforwardly as the literature claims. This gives rise to two puzzles: first, economic divergence does not always go together with political divergence. While all countries in the eastern and southern periphery marked by low or declining levels of democratic quality are poor, not all poor countries are weak democratic performers. The contribution argues that weakness of state institutions as exemplified by high levels of corruption constitutes a crucial condition under which economic divergence is likely to promote political divergence. Corruption makes poor countries more likely to backslide or to perform poorly with regard to their democratic quality. Second, economic convergence is not necessarily linked to political convergence. Even in times of economic development, identity politics that caters to a strong perception of relative deprivation is likely to drive democratic backsliding in the peripheries. This mechanism is also at work in EU core countries.