The quantitative periodization of athletic training: A model study

Abstract

A systems model that quantifies the effects of training on athletic performance has been subjected to a detailed simulation study. Four performance‐related variables were considered: (1) predicted peak performance, (2) the date of its occurrence, (3) an index of overtraining stress, and (4) the robustness of predicted performances around the peak. The study suggests that physiologic attributes of an athlete's fitness and fatigue responses to training are as relevant in optimizing performance as are parameters of training management. For any given athlete, training intensity, the spacing of training bouts, and the shape of the seasonal training profile are the most relevant parameters. In particular, in order to achieve maximum performance yet avoid overtraining stress, intensive training on alternate days distributed in a triangular shape over a short (150 day) season is preferable to moderate daily training distributed in triangular (or any other shape) over a long season.