Future Projections of Landfast Ice Thickness and Duration in the Canadian Arctic
- 15 October 2006
- journal article
- Published by American Meteorological Society in Journal of Climate
- Vol. 19 (20), 5175-5189
- https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli3889.1
Abstract
Projections of future landfast ice thickness and duration were generated for nine sites in the Canadian Arctic and one site on the Labrador coast with a simple downscaling technique that used a one-dimensional sea ice model driven by observationally based forcing and superimposed projected future climate change from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis global climate model (CGCM2). For the Canadian Arctic sites the downscaling approach indicated a decrease in maximum ice thickness of 30 and 50 cm and a reduction in ice cover duration of 1 and 2 months by 2041–60 and 2081–2100, respectively. In contrast, there is a slight increase in simulated landfast ice thickness and duration at Cartwright in the future due to its sensitivity to snow–ice formation with increased snowfall and to a projected slight cooling over this site (along the Labrador coast) by CGCM2. The magnitude of simulated changes in freeze-up and break-up date was largest for freeze up (e.g., 52 days later at Alert by 2081–2100), and freeze-up date changes exhibited much greater regional variability than break up, which was simulated to be 30 days earlier by 2081–2100 over the Canadian Arctic sites.Keywords
This publication has 20 references indexed in Scilit:
- Sea-ice and its response to CO2 forcing as simulated by global climate modelsClimate Dynamics, 2004
- Warming asymmetry in climate change simulationsGeophysical Research Letters, 2001
- The Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis global coupled model and its climateClimate Dynamics, 2000
- A transient climate change simulation with greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing: projected climate to the twenty-first centuryClimate Dynamics, 2000
- A transient climate change simulation with greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing: experimental design and comparison with the instrumental record for the twentieth centuryClimate Dynamics, 2000
- Role of diurnal processes in the seasonal evolution of sea ice and its snow coverJournal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 1999
- Relative impacts of human-induced climate change and natural climate variabilityNature, 1999
- Variability and climate sensitivity of landfast Arctic sea iceJournal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 1996
- Decay of a High Arctic lake-ice cover: observations and modellingJournal of Glaciology, 1994
- Interannual Variability of Landfast Ice Thickness in the Canadian High Arctic, 1950-89ARCTIC, 1992