A Look at Global Tropical Cyclone Activity during 1995: Contrasting High Atlantic Activity with Low Activity in Other Basins

Abstract

During 1995, there was a near-record number of named tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic basin. This unusual event fueled speculation that it marked a tangible signal of global climate change, or that it marked a return to a period of higher tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic, such as that which has been documented to have occurred during the decades of the 1940s through the 1960s. Less publicized, the tropical cyclone activity in other basins during 1995 was almost everywhere below normal. The concept of global and basin “prolific” years and “meager” years is introduced. During the past 30 years, the Atlantic has had two prolific years: 1969 and 1995. Although the annual number of tropical cyclones in each of the other basins is uncorrelated with the annual number of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, the two Atlantic prolific years of 1969 and 1995 were meager years in some of the other major basins, and below normal years in all of them. In the time series of the annual number of tropical cyclones in all basins except the Atlantic, 1969 and 1995 rank lowest and third lowest, respectively. The known relationships of the annual number of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic with ENSO and with the quasi-biennial ossilation are insufficient to explain the unusual global distribution of tropical cyclones during 1995.