Impact of climate change on potential distributions and relative abundances of Oulema melanopus, Meligethes viridescens and Ceutorhynchus obstrictus in Canada

Abstract

Climate change scenarios were applied to bio-climatic models to predict the potential distributions and relative abundances of three pest species that have recently been introduced to Canada: Ceutorhynchus obstrictus (Coleoptera: Curculionidae), Meligethes viridescens (Coleoptera: Nitidulidae), and Oulema melanopus (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae). The models, developed using CLIMEX™, were extended by utilizing incremental scenarios, representing potential climate change scenarios, as inputs. Compared to predicted range and distribution under current climate conditions, model results indicated that all three species would have increased ranges and relative abundances for temperature increases between 1 and 7 °C. Risks associated with these species will likely become more intense, both in terms of severity in regions where these species presently occur and in terms of their ability to become established in areas they do not occur.