Production Forecasting with Logistic Growth Models

Abstract

With the commercial development of extremely low permeability oil and gas reservoirs, new challenges have arisen both from operational and reservoir standpoints. Reservoir models, which previously yielded reasonable results for reserves estimates and production forecasts, no longer do so. Various new models and techniques have been proposed to improve the accuracy and reliability of reserves estimates; however, none have gained widespread industry acceptance. This paper will propose a new empirical model for production forecasting in extremely low permeability oil and gas reservoirs based on logistic growth models. The new model incorporates known physical volumetric quantities of oil and gas into the forecast to constrain the reserve estimate to a reasonable quantity. The new model is easy to use, and it is very capable of trending existing production data and providing reasonable forecasts of future production. The logistic growth model does not extrapolate to non-physical values.