Will the Northern Sea Route ever be a viable alternative?

Abstract

Since the decline in sea ice north of Russia became clear in the early 1990s, ideas of using the northern route for sea transport between Europe and Asia have taken a hold of the shipping community. Large and small research projects with varying complexity and results have looked into this option. In this article, the available information is studied in detail and four scenarios for the costs and durations of passage are studied to see if dry bulk transport via the Northern Sea Route (NSR) might be viable in any future. The conclusions are that due to the extra days spent waiting or slow steaming, as well as the extra costs involved, this route is a very unlikely alternative to the conventional Suez route.