Population Estimation Error and Its Impact on 1991–1999 Cancer Rates

Abstract

The error of closure in the 2000 census, or the difference between estimated and enumerated populations, poses special problems for public agencies that rely on census data. Nationally and at the state level, populations were only slightly underestimated, but underestimations were high in rapidly growing counties in the South and intermontaine West, as well as in New York City. Race-specific estimates proved far less reliable, with severe overestimates and underestimates of all racial groups in various counties nationwide. We offer explanations for the estimation error and discuss its impact on cancer rates and trends and its implications for cancer surveillance research.