Building Consensus Using the Policy Delphi Method

Abstract

This article describes the use of the policy Delphi method in building consensus for public policy and proposes a technique for measuring the degree of consensus. The policy Delphi method is a systematic method for obtaining, exchanging, and developing informed opinion on an issue. It can be used to develop consensus either for or against policy issues. The method includes a multistage process involving the initial measurement of opinions (first stage), followed by data analysis, design of a new questionnaire, and a second measurement of opinions (second stage). The interquartile deviation is presented as one way of measuring consensus, and the McNemar test is described as a way to quantify the degree of shift in responses from the first to second stage. The application of the method is illustrated by a case example from a study of state legislators’ views on tobacco policy.