Discrete-time hazard functions were estimated to determine factors associated with the probability of admission to a nursing home from the community, and the probability of discharge to the community from nursing home care, for 3,332 individuals enrolled in The National Long Term Care Channeling Demonstration. This was a relatively frail elderly population assessed to be at high risk for nursing home use. In predicting admissions, major factors were found to be ethnicity (Blacks and Hispanics were at much lower risk), homeownership, advancing age, living alone, exhibiting higher cognitive and functional impairment levels, physician use, and living in an area with a larger nursing home bed supply. The probability of being discharged alive was predicted by several factors, including ethnicity (Blacks being less likely to be discharged), homeownership, being of younger age, better (self-rated) health, functional and cognitive capacities, and medical acuity.