The metabolic syndrome and cardiovascular risk in the British Regional Heart Study
Open Access
- 12 May 2008
- journal article
- research article
- Published by Springer Science and Business Media LLC in International Journal of Obesity
- Vol. 32 (S2), S25-S29
- https://doi.org/10.1038/ijo.2008.32
Abstract
Objective: To evaluate the metabolic syndrome as an overall risk assessment tool for cardiovascular disease (CVD) and diabetes in middle-aged British men. Design: Prospective study. Subjects: A total of 5128 men aged 40–59 years with no history of CVD or diabetes drawn from general practices in 24 British towns and followed up for 20 years. Results: The metabolic syndrome (National Cholesterol Expert Panel definition) is associated with a significant increase in risk of total CHD (myocardial infarction, angina or CHD death) (relative risk (RR), 95% CI: 1.57, 1.39–1.97), stroke (1.61, 95% CI: 1.26–2.06) and type 2 diabetes (3.57, 95% CI: 2.83–4.50) and is a far stronger predictor of diabetes than of total CHD and stroke in middle-aged men. The metabolic syndrome was inferior to the Framingham Risk Score in predicting total CHD or major CVD over 20 years (area under the curve (AUC) 0.58 vs 0.66 for both CHD and CVD; PP<0.001). However, absolute risk of developing CVD or diabetes over 20 years in those with three or more abnormalities was very high, ranging from 41.8% in those with three abnormalities to over a 50% chance in those with four of five abnormalities, comparable to the absolute incidence rates in the top 2 fifths of the Framingham distribution. Conclusion: While the initial aim to use the metabolic syndrome to improve risk prediction of CHD has been disappointing, the syndrome identifies patients at high risk of both diabetes and CVD who may derive benefit from lifestyle intervention.This publication has 35 references indexed in Scilit:
- Definition of the Metabolic Syndrome: What's New and What Predicts Risk?Metabolic Syndrome and Related Disorders, 2006
- Metabolic Syndrome, Diabetes, and Cardiovascular Disease in an Elderly Caucasian Cohort: The Italian Longitudinal Study on AgingThe Journals of Gerontology: Series A, 2006
- Health consequences of obesity in the elderly: a review of four unresolved questionsInternational Journal of Obesity, 2005
- Relation of BMI to fat and fat-free mass among children and adolescentsInternational Journal of Obesity, 2004
- The metabolic syndrome and mortality from cardiovascular disease and all-causes: findings from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey II Mortality StudyAtherosclerosis, 2004
- Definition of Metabolic SyndromeCirculation, 2004
- Executive Summary of the Third Report of the National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) Expert Panel on Detection, Evaluation, and Treatment of High Blood Cholesterol in Adults (Adult Treatment Panel III)JAMA, 2001
- Twenty year follow-up of a cohort based in general practices in 24 British townsJournal of Public Health, 2000
- Comment on the provisional report from the WHO consultationDiabetic Medicine, 1999
- British Regional Heart Study: cardiovascular risk factors in middle-aged men in 24 towns.BMJ, 1981