Beyond the Demographic Transition

Abstract

Two major demographic movements have dominated population growth in the world during the past thirty years: first, the decline of death rates in the develop­ ing countries, which has brought about unusually rapid population growth, and, second, the rise and subsequent decline of birth rates in some developed countries. The first of these trends was to have been expected because it recapitulated the decline of mortality in the developed countries, though in a much shorter period of time. But the second-the rise of fertility in the developed countries­ was not generally expected. At most, demographers thought that there would be a moderate increase after the war to compensate for the interruption of family growth during the war-and, indeed, the word "compensation" has been used oc­ casionally to characterize the resurgence of childbearing in the postwar period. But it turned out to be much more than that, and we have had to recognize the fact that fertility rates in developed so­ cieties are not necessarily consistent with reproduction at the replacement level. The developed countries appear to have gone beyond the demographic transition and to have entered an era in which fer­ tility fluctuates mainly in response to influences other than those that reduced birth rates during the preceding three centuries. Certainly something unex­ pected happened, and it is natural to assume that new forces have come into play.