Modelling Urban Sustainabilty

Abstract

The objective of the EU research project PROPOLIS (Planning and Research of Policies for Land Use and Transport for Increasing Urban Sustainability) is to assess urban strategies and to demonstrate their long-term effect in European cities. To reach this goal, a comprehensive framework of methodologies including integrated land use, transport and environmental models as well as indicator, evaluation and presentation systems has been developed. Sustainable development is viewed as comprising the environmental, socio-cultural and economic dimension. Thirty-five key indicators were defined to measure the three dimensions of sustainability, such as air pollution, consumption of natural resources, quality of open space, population exposure to air pollution and noise, equity and opportunities and economic benefits from transport and land use. Indicator values are derived from state-of-the-art urban land use and transport models. A number of additional modules, including a justice evaluation module, an economic evaluation module and a GIS-based raster module, were developed and integrated to provide further indicator values. Both multicriteria and cost-benefit analysis methods are used to consistently evaluate the impacts of the policies. The environmental and social dimensions of sustainability are measured using multicriteria analysis for the evaluation of the indicators, whereas cost-benefit analysis is used for the economic dimension. The modelling and evaluation system is currently being implemented in seven European urban regions: Bilbao (Spain), Brussels (Belgium), Dortmund (Germany), Helsinki (Finland), Inverness (Scotland), Naples (Italy) and Vicenza (Italy). A large number of policies are being tested with the modelling and evaluation system in the seven urban regions. Policies investigated are land use policies, transport infrastructure policies, transport regulation and pricing policies and combinations of these. Besides a common set of policies examined in all seven urban regions, also city-specific local policies are being assessed in each urban region. The first part of the paper introduces the methodology and the model system developed. The second part presents first results of the policy testing and evaluation. The paper concludes with reflections on how successful strategies to enhance the long-term sustainability of urban regions can be developed.