Future Premature Mortality Due to O3, Secondary Inorganic Aerosols and Primary PM in Europe — Sensitivity to Changes in Climate, Anthropogenic Emissions, Population and Building Stock
Open Access
- 4 March 2015
- journal article
- research article
- Published by MDPI AG in International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
- Vol. 12 (3), 2837-2869
- https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph120302837
Abstract
Air pollution is an important environmental factor associated with health impacts in Europe and considerable resources are used to reduce exposure to air pollution through emission reductions. These reductions will have non-linear effects on exposure due, e.g., to interactions between climate and atmospheric chemistry. By using an integrated assessment model, we quantify the effect of changes in climate, emissions and population demography on exposure and health impacts in Europe. The sensitivity to the changes is assessed by investigating the differences between the decades 2000–2009, 2050–2059 and 2080–2089. We focus on the number of premature deaths related to atmospheric ozone, Secondary Inorganic Aerosols and primary PM. For the Nordic region we furthermore include a projection on how population exposure might develop due to changes in building stock with increased energy efficiency. Reductions in emissions cause a large significant decrease in mortality, while climate effects on chemistry and emissions only affects premature mortality by a few percent. Changes in population demography lead to a larger relative increase in chronic mortality than the relative increase in population. Finally, the projected changes in building stock and infiltration rates in the Nordic indicate that this factor may be very important for assessments of population exposure in the future.This publication has 62 references indexed in Scilit:
- Long-term air pollution exposure and cardio- respiratory mortality: a reviewEnvironmental Health, 2013
- Simulations of future sulphur and nitrogen deposition over Europe using meteorological data from three regional climate projectionsTellus B: Chemical and Physical Meteorology, 2013
- Variation in Estimated Ozone-Related Health Impacts of Climate Change due to Modeling Choices and AssumptionsEnvironmental Health Perspectives, 2012
- Cost-effective control of air quality and greenhouse gases in Europe: Modeling and policy applicationsEnvironmental Modelling & Software, 2011
- Black Carbon as an Additional Indicator of the Adverse Health Effects of Airborne Particles Compared with PM 10 and PM 2.5Environmental Health Perspectives, 2011
- The Rossby Centre Regional Climate model RCA3: model description and performanceTellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 2011
- Air Pollution Exposures and Circulating Biomarkers of Effect in a Susceptible Population: Clues to Potential Causal Component mixtures and mechanismsEnvironmental Health Perspectives, 2009
- Human mortality effects of future concentrations of tropospheric ozoneComptes Rendus Geoscience, 2007
- Laboratory simulations and parameterization of the primary marine aerosol productionJournal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2003
- A global model of natural volatile organic compound emissionsJournal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 1995