A methodology for assessing national outdoor recreation demand and supply trends

Abstract

The purpose of this article is to present the model and method developed for the aggregate, national outdoor recreation and wilderness demand and supply assessment required by the Renewable Resources Planning Act (RPA) of 1974. RPA requires aggregate analysis of current and possible future equilibria that could result from different demand and supply futures. Price change was used as the principle indicator of changes in demand relative to changes in supply for individual recreation activities. Demand functions and reduced‐form consumption functions were estimated for 38 activities, 10 of which are presented here. This approach provided prediction models, indices of future consumption and price trends, and average community demand under various supply conditions. The underlying model is based on household production theory viewed as an appropriate basis for aggregate economic analysis. Adjusted R²s for the demand and consumption models ranged between 0.32 and 0.71. Predicted consumption and price changes ranged between 7 and 78% and ‐5 and +8% (in real terms), respectively. These ranges reflect likely consumption and price trends to the year 2010, depending on whether future supply of recreation opportunities decreases, remains constant, grows moderately, or grows rapidly. Results show that equilibrium trip consumption and prices can be estimated nationwide and that these results are quite sensitive to recreation opportunity (supply) growth rates. The methods developed for this analysis should prove useful in other ongoing comprehensive planning and assessment efforts.