Surprise and Unexpectedness in Flying: Database Reviews and Analyses

Abstract

This database search and evaluation was performed to ascertain what types of situations pilots consider surprising or unexpected. The purpose of the investigation was to determine if natural categories of events emerge from the existing accident, incident, and event reporting data commensurate with the current operational and research focus concerned with unexpected events and aviation safety. The underlying question was whether the involvement of surprise or unexpectedness in events may be a precursor to a loss of attention, increased workload, or other interruptions of ongoing processes, which may then contribute to an unwanted outcome of a maneuver, or an entire flight as revealed in these database reports. The study was also conducted to facilitate the development of a conceptual framework for the study of unexpected events in aviation.