Residual Lifetime Risk for Developing Hypertension in Middle-aged Women and Men

Abstract

High blood pressure is a key risk factor for cardiovascular disease events.^1-3 The long-term risk for developing hypertension in an individual is best described by the lifetime risk statistic, ie, the probability that an individual will develop hypertension over the course of his or her remaining lifetime. Lifetime risk estimates for disease conditions are more easily understood by the general public compared with other measures of disease frequency, such as age-specific prevalence.^4-6 For example, the American Cancer Society used the "1 in 9" statistic for the lifetime risk for breast cancer in the early 1990s to promote mammographic screening.⁵ Furthermore, lifetime risk estimates also may be used to assess temporal trends in long-term disease risk.⁴ Although lifetime risk estimates are available for several chronic disease conditions, including breast cancer, dementia, fractures, and coronary heart disease,^5,7-9 the lifetime risk for developing hypertension has not been reported.