A Predictive Model for Progression of Chronic Kidney Disease to Kidney Failure

Abstract

An estimated 23 million people in the United States (11.5% of the adult population) have chronic kidney disease (CKD) and are at increased risk for cardiovascular events and progression to kidney failure.^1-5 Similar estimates of burden of disease have been reported around the world.⁶ Although there are proven therapies to improve outcomes in patients with progressive kidney disease, these therapies may also cause harm and add cost. Clinical decision making for CKD is challenging due to the heterogeneity of kidney diseases, variability in rates of disease progression, and the competing risk of cardiovascular mortality.^7,8 Accurate prediction of risk could facilitate individualized decision making, enabling early and appropriate patient care.^9,10