The Effect of Risk Perception on the 2009 H1N1 Pandemic Influenza Dynamics
Open Access
- 7 February 2011
- journal article
- research article
- Published by Public Library of Science (PLoS) in PLOS ONE
- Vol. 6 (2), e16460
- https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0016460
Abstract
The 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza dynamics in Italy was characterized by a notable pattern: as it emerged from the analysis of influenza-like illness data, after an initial period (September–mid-October 2009) characterized by a slow exponential increase in the weekly incidence, a sudden and sharp increase of the growth rate was observed by mid-October. The aim here is to understand whether spontaneous behavioral changes in the population could be responsible for such a pattern of epidemic spread. In order to face this issue, a mathematical model of influenza transmission, accounting for spontaneous behavioral changes driven by cost/benefit considerations on the perceived risk of infection, is proposed and validated against empirical epidemiological data. The performed investigation revealed that an initial overestimation of the risk of infection in the general population, possibly induced by the high concern for the emergence of a new influenza pandemic, results in a pattern of spread compliant with the observed one. This finding is also supported by the analysis of antiviral drugs purchase over the epidemic period. Moreover, by assuming a generation time of 2.5 days, the initially diffuse misperception of the risk of infection led to a relatively low value of the reproductive number , which increased to in the subsequent phase of the pandemic. This study highlights that spontaneous behavioral changes in the population, not accounted by the large majority of influenza transmission models, can not be neglected to correctly inform public health decisions. In fact, individual choices can drastically affect the epidemic spread, by altering timing, dynamics and overall number of cases.Keywords
This publication has 49 references indexed in Scilit:
- A computer simulation of vaccine prioritization, allocation, and rationing during the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemicVaccine, 2010
- Vaccination against pandemic influenza A/H1N1v in England: A real-time economic evaluationVaccine, 2010
- Multiscale mobility networks and the spatial spreading of infectious diseasesProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2009
- The spread of awareness and its impact on epidemic outbreaksProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2009
- Modeling targeted layered containment of an influenza pandemic in the United StatesProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2008
- Vaccinating behaviour, information, and the dynamics of SIR vaccine preventable diseasesTheoretical Population Biology, 2007
- Long-standing influenza vaccination policy is in accord with individual self-interest but not with the utilitarian optimumProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2007
- Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemicNature, 2006
- Mitigation strategies for pandemic influenza in the United StatesProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2006
- Modelling vaccination strategies against foot-and-mouth diseaseNature, 2002