Extratropical Southern Hemisphere Cyclones: Harbingers of Climate Change?

Abstract

In concert with a poleward shift in baroclinicity, the synoptic environment south of 40°S appears to have changed significantly over recent decades. South of 40°S and north of the Antarctic Ocean the number of cyclones has dramatically decreased, while over the Antarctic Ocean a modest increase has occurred. A global climate model with anthropogenic forcing produces similar historical changes, and under a “business-as-usual” emissions scenario predicts that the number of sub-Antarctic Ocean cyclones will drop by over 30% between now and century's end.