Calculation of lifetime lung cancer risks associated with radon exposure, based on various models and exposure scenarios
Open Access
- 17 June 2015
- journal article
- research article
- Published by IOP Publishing in Journal of Radiological Protection
- Vol. 35 (3), 539-555
- https://doi.org/10.1088/0952-4746/35/3/539
Abstract
The risk of lung cancer mortality up to 75 years of age due to radon exposure has been estimated for both male and female continuing, ex- and never-smokers, based on various radon risk models and exposure scenarios. We used risk models derived from (i) the BEIR VI analysis of cohorts of radon-exposed miners, (ii) cohort and nested case-control analyses of a European cohort of uranium miners and (iii) the joint analysis of European residential radon case-control studies. Estimates of the lifetime lung cancer risk due to radon varied between these models by just over a factor of 2 and risk estimates based on models from analyses of European uranium miners exposed at comparatively low rates and of people exposed to radon in homes were broadly compatible. For a given smoking category, there was not much difference in lifetime lung cancer risk between males and females. The estimated lifetime risk of radon-induced lung cancer for exposure to a concentration of 200 Bq m(-3) was in the range 2.98-6.55% for male continuing smokers and 0.19-0.42% for male never-smokers, depending on the model used and assuming a multiplicative relationship for the joint effect of radon and smoking. Stopping smoking at age 50 years decreases the lifetime risk due to radon by around a half relative to continuing smoking, but the risk for ex- smokers remains about a factor of 5-7 higher than that for never-smokers. Under a sub-multiplicative model for the joint effect of radon and smoking, the lifetime risk of radon-induced lung cancer was still estimated to be substantially higher for continuing smokers than for never smokers. Radon mitigation-used to reduce radon concentrations at homes-can also have a substantial impact on lung cancer risk, even for persons in their 50 s; for each of continuing smokers, ex-smokers and never-smokers, radon mitigation at age 50 would lower the lifetime risk of radon-induced lung cancer by about one-third. To maximise risk reductions, smokers in high-radon homes should both stop smoking and remediate their homes.Keywords
This publication has 21 references indexed in Scilit:
- Lung cancer risk from radon in Ontario, Canada: how many lung cancers can we prevent?Cancer Causes & Control, 2013
- Canadian population risk of radon induced lung cancer: a re-assessment based on the recent cross-Canada radon surveyRadiation Protection Dosimetry, 2012
- POPULATION ATTRIBUTABLE FRACTION FOR LUNG CANCER DUE TO RESIDENTIAL RADON IN SWITZERLAND AND GERMANYHealth Physics, 2008
- The Risk of Death by Age, Sex, and Smoking Status in the United States: Putting Health Risks in ContextJNCI Journal of the National Cancer Institute, 2008
- New Models for Evaluation of Radiation-Induced Lifetime Cancer Risk and its Uncertainty Employed in the UNSCEAR 2006 ReportRadiation Research, 2008
- Dose conversion of radon exposure according to new epidemiological findingsRadiation Protection Dosimetry, 2008
- Radon in homes and risk of lung cancer: collaborative analysis of individual data from 13 European case-control studiesBMJ, 2004
- Risk of lung cancer and residential radon in China: Pooled results of two studiesInternational Journal of Cancer, 2003
- Calculating excess lifetime risk in relative risk models.Environmental Health Perspectives, 1990