Quantifying the Diversification of Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) during Primary Infection: Estimates of the In Vivo Mutation Rate

Abstract

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is present in the host with multiple variants generated by its error prone RNA-dependent RNA polymerase. Little is known about the initial viral diversification and the viral life cycle processes that influence diversity. We studied the diversification of HCV during acute infection in 17 plasma donors, with frequent sampling early in infection. To analyze these data, we developed a new stochastic model of the HCV life cycle. We found that the accumulation of mutations is surprisingly slow: at 30 days, the viral population on average is still 46% identical to its transmitted viral genome. Fitting the model to the sequence data, we estimate the median in vivo viral mutation rate is 2.5×10⁻⁵ mutations per nucleotide per genome replication (range 1.6–6.2×10⁻⁵), about 5-fold lower than previous estimates. To confirm these results we analyzed the frequency of stop codons (N = 10) among all possible non-sense mutation targets (M = 898,335), and found a mutation rate of 2.8–3.2×10⁻⁵, consistent with the estimate from the dynamical model. The slow accumulation of mutations is consistent with slow turnover of infected cells and replication complexes within infected cells. This slow turnover is also inferred from the viral load kinetics. Our estimated mutation rate, which is similar to that of other RNA viruses (e.g., HIV and influenza), is also compatible with the accumulation of substitutions seen in HCV at the population level. Our model identifies the relevant processes (long-lived cells and slow turnover of replication complexes) and parameters involved in determining the rate of HCV diversification. Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a RNA virus that infects over 170 million people across the world. It leads to a chronic infection in the majority of people who are infected (>70%). Most people only discover that they are infected long after initial infection. Thus, it is difficult to study the very early events in infection. Here we study 17 individuals during the earliest possible stages of infection, from before the virus is detectable in the plasma to around 35 days post-infection. We focus on understanding the viral kinetics and the diversification of HCV during this acute phase of infection. During chronic infection HCV is present in the host as a swarm of multiple variants generated by its error prone copying. We studied the early diversification of HCV during acute infection using a new mathematical model of HCV replication. We found that after a phase of fast increase in viral load, accompanied by viral diversification, there is a stabilization of viral load and diversity levels. Using our model, we were able to estimate for the first time the HCV mutation rate during acute infection. We estimated the median in vivo viral mutation rate is 2.5×10⁻⁵ mutations per nucleotide per genome replication (range 1.6–6.2×10⁻⁵), about 5-fold lower than previous estimates. We also used a different approach, based on results of classical genetics, to calculate HCV's mutation rate and obtained consistent results (2.8–3.2×10⁻⁵).