Consumer misbehavior: why people buy illicit goods

Abstract

Trade in contraband amounts to billions of dollars each year, and yet the buyers of these products are still a mystery. The purpose of this study was to model the decision to purchase illicit goods, using four predictor measures: product type, buying situation, perceived criminal risk, and price. Part‐worth conjoint analysis was used to obtain individual weights of main effects and selected interaction effects on the willingness to purchase. Individual respondents evaluated the purchase of illicit goods differently. Cluster analysis was used to segment the respondents. Discriminant analysis was used to assess variable importance. The overall model was shown to be significant. Although the results varied by cluster, the main effects of product type, buying situation and price were all significant predictors of willingness to buy. The interactions of risk with product type and price with product type were also significant predictors for some clusters.