The ‘Great Migration’ of summer 2015: analysing the assemblage of key drivers in Turkey

Abstract

By 2015, approximately 2.8 million refugees had arrived in Turkey: approximately 2.5 million from Syria and about 300,000 from other countries. By the end of the year, an estimated 850,000 had moved on to Greece and from there on to other E.U. countries. This onward flow represents a sudden change from 2014 when only 51,000 people exited Turkey for the E.U. This article investigates events in Turkey in 2015 in order to explain these processes. The theoretical framework analyses the interplay of what I describe as secondary root causes for flight. It examines conditions in Turkey as first country of arrival and considers the migration infrastructure as well as political opportunities and constraints. This paper is based on findings from two research projects conducted in 2014 and 2015 which included qualitative interviews with refugees and stakeholders, as well as field observations. It considers the main patterns emerging during this period of both inward and secondary migration, as well as changes over time from 2014 to 2016.