Gout is associated with an increased risk for incident heart failure among older adults: the REasons for Geographic And Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) cohort study

Abstract

Gout has been associated with a higher risk for coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke in some prior studies. Few studies have assessed the association of gout with incident heart failure (HF). We analyzed data from 5713 black and white men and women ≥ 65.5 years of age in the population-based REasons for Geographic And Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) cohort study who had Medicare coverage without a history of HF, CHD, or stroke at baseline between 2003 and 2007. Gout was defined by ≥ 1 hospitalization or ≥ 2 outpatient visits with a diagnosis code for gout in Medicare claims prior to each participant’s baseline study examination. REGARDS study participants were followed for HF hospitalization, CHD, stroke, and all-cause mortality as separate outcomes through December 31, 2016. Analyses were replicated in a random sample of 839,059 patients ≥ 65.5 years of age with Medicare coverage between January 1, 2008, and June 30, 2015, who were followed through December 31, 2017. Among REGARDS study participants included in the current analysis, the mean age at baseline was 72.6 years, 44.9% were men, 31.4% were black, and 3.3% had gout. Over a median follow-up of 10.0 years, incidence rates per 1000 person-years among participants with and without gout were 13.1 and 4.4 for HF hospitalization, 16.0 and 9.3 for CHD, 9.3 and 8.2 for stroke, and 55.0 and 37.1 for all-cause mortality, respectively. After multivariable adjustment for sociodemographic variables and cardiovascular risk factors, hazard ratios (95% CI) comparing participants with versus without gout were 1.97 (1.22, 3.19) for HF hospitalization, 1.21 (0.79, 1.84) for CHD, 0.83 (0.48, 1.43) for stroke, and 1.08 (0.86, 1.35) for all-cause mortality. The multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio for HF hospitalization with reduced and preserved left ventricular ejection fraction among participants with versus without gout was 1.77 (95% CI 0.83, 3.79) and 2.32 (95% CI 1.12, 4.79), respectively. The multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio for heart failure hospitalization associated with gout among the 839,059 Medicare beneficiaries was 1.32 (95% CI 1.25, 1.39). Among older adults, gout was associated with an increased risk for incident HF but not for incident CHD, incident stroke, or all-cause mortality.