FORECASTING OF UNMET NEEDS PERCENTAGE IN EAST JAVA PROVINCE USING AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (ARIMA) METHOD

Abstract

ARIMA uses present and past values as the dependent variable. The accuracy of the ARIMA forecasting method results is good to be used to obtain short-term forecasts. Compared to other time series methods, the advantage of ARIMA method is that it can be used in the percentage of unmet needs data in East Java Province since ARIMA method does not require any specific data motives. Unmet need is a group of women who do not want to have any more children or want to minimize their pregnancy but refuse to use contraception to prevent pregnancy. This study aims to determine the percentage of unmet needs in East Java Province in the future. This study will analyze the value of forecasting and determine the best model for ARIMA. The data used is the monthly data of unmet needs percentage of East Java Province starting from January 2014 to April 2019 (64 data plots). The results showed that the percentage of the number of unmet needs in East Java Province can be predicted using ARIMA model (12,1,0) without constant. The model is based on ARIMA (12,1,0) diagnostic test without constant meeting all the test requirements. The results of forecasting held a MAPE value of 2.369% and MAE of 0.26%. Based on MAPE and MAE, the model has a very good forecasting ability with a fairly small error value. Forecasting results indicated fluctuations in unmet needs data, where from December 2019 to February 2020 there was an increase in number of unmet needs in East Java Province. In the interim, starting in March 2020, the data needs in East Java Province tend to be constant at a higher position than the previous increase.