Economy, Volume 5, pp 8-16; doi:10.20448/journal.502.2018.51.8.16
Abstract:This study examined the effects of poultry production on agricultural output in Nigeria. Specifically, this study is tailored to explore the effects of poultry birds’ production, poultry eggs production and poultry meat production on agricultural output. The period covered by the study spanned from 1975 to 2016. Data on the variables of interests were obtained from the Food and Agricultural Organization Statistics (FAOSTAT) and National Bureau of Statistics. The analytical techniques comprise OLS and error correction model. The Phillips-Perron unit root test results show that all the variables have unit root at levels test, but become stationary after being differenced once. The cointegration test results indicate that each of the test statistics show evidence of two cointegrating equations. This suggests that in actual fact long run relationship exists among the variables. From the parsimonious ECM, it was revealed that poultry birds production negatively influence agricultural GDP. Poultry eggs production has an insignificant effect on agricultural GDP as evidenced in the parsimonious ECM. The result further shows that poultry meat production is associated with a positive and significant coefficient. The implication of this finding is that the production of poultry meats enhances agricultural GDP through its important contribution to the livestock sub-sector. It was discovered from the result that the coefficient (-0.378) of error correction has the intended theoretical negative sign and also satisfies the statistical condition at 1 percent level. It is clear from this finding that any short run disequilibrium in the system can be corrected in the long run at 39 percent. Thus, this study recommends amongst others that governments at all levels should evolve measures that promote huge commitment to infrastructural development in agricultural sector in order to boost poultry output and promote self-sufficiency in poultry farming.
Economy, Volume 5, pp 1-7; doi:10.20448/journal.502.2018.51.1.7
Abstract:The article discusses key issues of the origin, development and essence of modern foresight. There is explained three main program of foresight. In scientific –technical programming is the foresight a new event or not, how is it possible to positioning the foresight in strategic planning , is its methodology used at regional level or not, in the paper there are also given the stages of formation of foresight, the parallelization is given between forecast and foresight and it is justified that the participants of foresight create real possibilities not only for forecast, also they discuss the future possible alternatives and develop strategies to implement more promising projects. Methodological issues of foresight are also studied, in particular, normative and exploratory approaches, a wide range of methods used for foresight: Creativity, Expertise and Forecast, Analysis, Interaction –Delphi – Methods of Survey establishment on quality information.
Economy, Volume 4, pp 1-6; doi:10.20448/journal.502.2017.41.1.6
Economy, Volume 4, pp 7-14; doi:10.20448/journal.502.2017.41.7.14
Economy, Volume 3, pp 51-73; doi:10.20448/journal.502/2016.3.2/502.2.51.73
Abstract:The annual GDP performance mean between all 162 World Trade Organization countries was measured between two time periods: 1989-2001 and 2002 and 2014. The 10 best and worst performing nations were measured and analyzed against each other for each time period. The 10 nations with the largest positive and negative annual GDP mean performance shift was compiled and discussed. Discussion regarding the data, WTO membership, and external trade networks is included, and the article incorporates an analysis effective austerity measures, lack of diversification, and membership in trade and political organizations, which have led to both positive and negative outcomes in relation to annual GDP mean economic performance for WTO member nations over the two time periods measured. Analysis regarding the annual GDP mean performance concludes that the WTO has promoted world trade throughout the world, and this has directly resulted in an increase of annual GDP mean performance by 29% over the two time periods studied for WTO member nations.
Economy, Volume 3, pp 94-101; doi:10.20448/journal.502/2016.3.2/502.2.94.101
Abstract:Increasing levels in Non-Performing loans (NPLs) which has remained an area of great concern contributed to issue of declining agribusiness activities in Nigeria in the 1990s and thereafter. The study examined non-performing loans relationship with agricultural lending and agricultural productivity from 1980 to 2015 in Nigeria. Time series data obtained from CBN were analyzed using, Granger causality test, Pearson correlation, and co-integration as well as error correction models. The empirical analyses revealed that, bilateral Granger causality existed between loans and advances granted to agricultural sector and non-performing loans in Nigeria. Also, growth in GDP has a positive and significant correlation with NPL in Nigeria. In the long run, NPL is positively related to agricultural productivity, growth in the GDP and value of loans and advances offered to agricultural sector. Whereas, in the short run, NPL reacted significantly to the negative influence of interest rate and positive impact of GDP growth rate. The adjustment coefficient of 52% was discovered for the NPL long run equation in Nigeria. It is recommended that short and long- term banking reform policies be adopted to reduce fluctuations in NPLs in the banking system and efforts should be geared towards increased participation of specialized financial institutions as to accelerate investments in agriculture sector.
Economy, Volume 3, pp 74-78; doi:10.20448/journal.502/2016.3.2/502.2.74.78
Abstract:The paper examines the effects of inflation and its risk on interest rate in Nigeria. The data sets cover the period of 1995:M1 to 2014:M12. ARCH (1) and GARCH (1, 1) were used to measure inflation risk and the result indicates that GARCH(1, 1) measures inflation risk better than ARCH(1) model based on Schwarz Information Criterion (SIC), and adopting multiple regression method, the result reveals that inflation and inflation risk exact negative and positive impacts on interest rate respectively, but none is significant. This result implies that the direction of this interest rate by monetary policy rate (MPR) is not proactive enough to curb the rising inflationary pressure in Nigeria. Hence, there is a need for more proactive monetary policy rate that can cut back the rising inflationary pressure.
Economy, Volume 3, pp 79-93; doi:10.20448/journal.502/2016.3.2/502.2.79.93
Abstract:The 2004 enlargement of the European Union was the largest single acceptance of members to the organization at a single time in its history. Many EU members were opposed to the enlargement because many of the nations that were being considered for acceptance were thought to have inferior economies to the other EU members, and 8 of the 10 were former communistic states. The hypothesis of this study was that acceptance to the EU was not beneficial for the member nations of the 2004 enlargement in relation to their annual GDP mean performance, which was found to be true. This article discusses the impact of the global financial crisis of 2008, and its impact on all EU members. It also discusses problems surrounding euro adoption of nations within the Eurozone and the flawed design of the EU, specifically the ECB and the EMU.
Economy, Volume 3, pp 40-50; doi:10.20448/journal.502/2016.3.1/502.1.40.50
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Economy, Volume 3, pp 31-39; doi:10.20448/journal.502/2016.3.1/502.1.31.39