The Future of Africa
Latest articles in this journal
The Future of Africa pp 355-379; doi:10.1007/978-3-030-46590-2_15
On its current development trajectory the world is headed for serious climate change trouble. More carbon emissions will affect all of humanity and with its low adaptation capacity, arid climates and rainfall-dependent agriculture, Africa is particularly at risk. Cillliers offers an in-depth assessment of the implications of climate change for Africans. In addition to reviewing the scientific consensus on the threats climate change is likely to pose in the coming decades, he sheds light on how Africa’s future trends in energy, population and lifestyle will affect carbon emissions. The chapter concludes by comparing Africa’s carbon emissions in four scenarios with the Current Path forecast, namely Made in Africa and Free Trade (highest carbon emissions) and Leapfrogging and Demographic Dividend (lowest carbon emissions).
The Future of Africa pp 123-145; doi:10.1007/978-3-030-46590-2_6
In this chapter Cilliers provides an overview of trends in education in Africa and compares that with progress in other regions. In addition to a review of common educational outcomes such as measuring years of schooling, he places attention on the poor quality of education and roles of gender exclusion. That is followed by a summary of future education requirements and a scenario, Boosting Education, that explores the impact of improvements in the quality and quantity of education in Africa while taking advantage of technology to promote learning outcomes and human development.
The Future of Africa pp 307-330; doi:10.1007/978-3-030-46590-2_13
In this chapter, Cilliers explores how democracy has swept across the globe to become the dominant form of governance. Africa, too, has become increasingly democratic, but often in name only: regular elections are often façades for corrupt, autocratic regimes. Cilliers explains how, in fact, competitive politics in poorly developed countries with weak political institutions may actually hinder development. However, public support for democracy has surged in Africa and it is critical that African countries protect and advance the strides they have made towards substantive democratic governance. The Fourth Wave scenario laid out in this chapter demonstrates how a more democratic Africa would impact on development.
The Future of Africa pp 279-305; doi:10.1007/978-3-030-46590-2_12
In this chapter, Cilliers assesses historical and present conflict dynamics across Africa and how they relate to governance, demographics and socioeconomics. Woven throughout is a discussion on the role of peacekeepers and external involvement more broadly, the surge of terrorism in Africa and how these two phenomena bear upon one another. It assesses the origins, nature and implications of the declining trends in armed conflict and the emergence of urban protests as the key feature of violence and instability in much of Africa. In an alternative future scenario, Cilliers assesses what development outcomes Africa could expect if it were to succeed in reducing levels of instability in a scenario named Silencing the Guns.
The Future of Africa pp 71-96; doi:10.1007/978-3-030-46590-2_4
In this chapter, Cilliers defines the demographic dividend and explains its relationship to economic growth, with a focus on the African continent. It first covers the fundamentals of the relationship between population and economics, then offers an in-depth discussion of two key concepts, the demographic transition and demographic dividend. The chapter demonstrates that sub-Saharan Africa’s high fertility rates are a drag on development rather than an advantage, as the region can only expect to enjoy a demographic dividend after mid-century. It then uses scenario analysis to demonstrate that, given the right policy conditions, Africa can accelerate population-driven economic growth by reducing its fertility rate through interventions in education, infrastructure, human capital and, most importantly, women’s empowerment.
The Future of Africa pp 331-353; doi:10.1007/978-3-030-46590-2_14
Cilliers sheds light on the evolving global aid, investment and remittance landscape and what it means for Africa, with special attention to China’s growing presence on the continent, and compares that with others. Collectively the EU and its member states provide most aid although the USA is Africa’s largest single aid provider. Aid will remain important for low-income countries but its importance is declining in favour of a focus on the need to attract larger volumes of foreign direct investment (FDI). An External Support scenario explores the impact of heightened aid, remittances and FDI on Africa’s development trajectory.
The Future of Africa pp 381-406; doi:10.1007/978-3-030-46590-2_16
In this concluding chapter Cilliers presents a combined Close the Gap scenario that integrates the eleven scenarios that were modelled in the previous chapters and compares the impact with the Current Path prospects on dimensions such as income growth, economic size, impact on extreme poverty and carbon emissions. The chapter then moves on to compare the impact of the scenarios with one another. The results differ for low, lower-middle and upper-income countries as well as over time. The differences are illustrated with reference to improvements for each income group in 2030, 2040 and 2050. The chapter then sketches out a broad description of a ‘standard economic growth model’ that emerges from the preceding analysis. It concludes by pointing to the similarities and differences compared to China’s recent history.
The Future of Africa pp 249-277; doi:10.1007/978-3-030-46590-2_11
Cilliers starts by exploring the modern history of international trade and the importance of trade to economic growth and global cooperation. The chapter then provides an overview of Africa’s trading partners, the need for greater regional integration in the continent and the challenges to achieving intra-regional cooperation. It examines the need to improve the quality of governance, bridge the infrastructure deficit and eventually focus on a manufacturing-led growth path. Reducing both tariff and non-tariff barriers could facilitate the successful implementation of African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), induce economic growth, increase per capita incomes and reduce poverty. A penultimate section models the potential impact of the AfCFTA on growth, poverty reduction and increased average incomes.
The Future of Africa pp 1-22; doi:10.1007/978-3-030-46590-2_1
In this chapter Cilliers introduces the growing divergence in income and other indices of well-being between Africa and the Rest of the World. He touches on various aspects such as extreme poverty and Africa’s marginal role in the global economy and illustrates the challenge by comparing the divergent experiences of South Korea and Ghana in demographics and income, before moving to introduce matters relating to productivity, digitisation, agriculture and manufacturing. The chapter presents key characteristics of Africa compared to other countries and regions to 2040, defines some of the terms, introduces the International Futures forecasting platform that is used for the forecasts, and the structure of the book.
The Future of Africa pp 169-194; doi:10.1007/978-3-030-46590-2_8
In this chapter, Cilliers offers various explanations for Africa’s lack of sustained, structural economic transformation from low-value economic activities towards high-value services and manufacturing, and explores the challenges associated with the continent failing to industrialise. He offers historical context for how this situation emerged, drawing from global datasets such as trade data from the UN Conference on Trade and Development. The chapter then proceeds to look to the future of industrialisation in Africa in the context of technology-driven changes to the manufacturing sector globally via the fourth industrial revolution, which could offer the continent opportunities to gain a foothold in global value chains. The latter portion of the chapter models key interventions in a Made in Africa scenario, and examines its economic impact to 2040.