Nature Climate Change

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ISSN / EISSN : 1758-678X / 1758-6798
Published by: Springer Nature (10.1038)
Total articles ≅ 4,025
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Published: 10 January 2022
Nature Climate Change, Volume 12, pp 1-1; https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01274-5

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, B. E. McNellis, A. Howell, C. M. Lauria, J. Belnap, S. C. Reed
Published: 10 January 2022
Nature Climate Change, Volume 12, pp 71-76; https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01249-6

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, Andreas Gattringer, Frédéric Guillaume, , Günther Klonner, Dietmar Moser,
Published: 10 January 2022
Nature Climate Change, Volume 12, pp 77-82; https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01255-8

Abstract:
Modelling of climate-driven range shifts commonly treats species as ecologically homogeneous units. However, many species show intraspecific variation of climatic niches and theory predicts that such variation may lead to counterintuitive eco-evolutionary dynamics. Here, we incorporate assumed intraspecific niche variation into a dynamic range model and explore possible consequences for six high-mountain plant species of the European Alps under scenarios of twenty-first century climate warming. At the species level, the results indicate massive range loss independent of intraspecific variation. At the intraspecific level, the model predicts a decrease in the frequency of warm-adapted haplotypes in five species. The latter effect is probably driven by a combination of leading-edge colonization and priority effects within the species’ elevational range and was weakest when leading-edge expansion was constrained by mountain topography The resulting maladaptation may additionally increase the risk that alpine plants face from shrinkage of their ranges in a warming climate.
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