Global marine heatwave events using the new CMIP6 multi-model ensemble: from shortcomings in present climate to future projections

Abstract

In recent years, research related to the occurrence of marine heatwave (MHW) events worldwide has been increasing, reporting severe impacts on marine ecosystems which led to losses of marine biodiversity or changes in world fisheries. Many of these studies, based on regional and global coupled models, show relevant biases in the MHW properties when compared with observations. In this study, the MHW frequency of occurrence, the duration and mean intensity over the global oceans are characterized, taking advantage of the new global climate model (GCM) dataset, from the Coupled Model Project Intercomparison Phase 6 (CMIP6). The MHWs result for the historical period are compared with observations, and the future projected changes are characterized under three socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) (SSP1, SSP2 and SSP5), for the middle and end of century (2041–2070 and 2071–2100). The results show a reasonable agreement between the modeled and observed MHW property trends, indicating increases in the frequency, duration and intensity of MHWs along the historical period. For the period 1982–2014, both the ∼2 mean observed events per year and the mean intensity of 0.35 °C above the threshold are underestimated by the multi-model ensemble (MME) mean by 21% and 31%, respectively, while the observed duration of ∼12 d are overestimated by 100%. The future MHWs are expected to increase in duration and intensity, where a near permanent MHW occurs with reference to the historical climate conditions, mainly by the end of the 21st century. The future MHWs intensity, projected by the MME mean, increases in the range of 0.2 °C to 1.5 °C, from the least to the most severe pathways. The GCMs biases obtained with CMIP6 revealed to be in line with the CMIP5 biases, reinforcing the need to use high spatial resolution models to characterize MHW.