Changing trajectories of serum uric acid and risk of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: a prospective cohort study

Abstract

Background It is unclear the role of longitudinal trajectory of serum uric acid (SUA) on the development of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). We aimed to determine whether longitudinal SUA trajectories are associated with the risk of new-onset NAFLD. Methods We explored the relationship between SUA trajectories and NAFLD in a cohort including 3822 participants. Individual's SUA trajectories from 2012 to 2014 were defined using group-based trajectory modeling analysis in four distinct patterns: trajectory 1 (n = 991, 25.93%), trajectory 2 (n = 1421, 37.18%), trajectory 3 (n = 1156, 30.22%), and trajectory 4 (n = 254, 6.67%). The logistic regression model was used to evaluate the association between SUA changing trajectories and subsequent NAFLD until 2016. Dose-response relationship between SUA changing trajectories and NAFLD risk was evaluated through the testing of trajectory groups as a continuous variable. Results The 2-year incidence of NAFLD was 13.27%. Compared with trajectory 1, the adjusted odds risk for NAFLD development was in a dose-response relationship as follows: 1.27 (95% CI 0.91-1.78) for trajectory 2, 1.89 (95% CI 1.29-2.75) for trajectory 3, and 2.34 (95% CI 1.43-3.83) for trajectory 4. And this dose-response relationship was not affected by age, sex, and abdominal obesity. Conclusions Higher SUA changing trajectory is a risk factor for NAFLD. This finding highlights the importance of paying attention to SUA changing trajectory on the detection and prevention of NAFLD.