The interplay of movement and spatiotemporal variation in transmission degrades pandemic control

Abstract

Successful public health regimes for COVID-19 push below unity long-term regional R_t —the average number of secondary cases caused by an infectious individual. We use a susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model for two coupled populations to make the conceptual point that asynchronous, variable local control, together with movement between populations, elevates long-term regional R_t, and cumulative cases, and may even prevent disease eradication that is otherwise possible. For effective pandemic mitigation strategies, it is critical that models encompass both spatiotemporal heterogeneity in transmission and movement.