Comparing with other countries the spread of COVID-19 within the first 120 days of its outbreak in Nigeria

Abstract

Background: COVID-19 is an emerging global public health crisis. The increase in the daily COVID-19 confirmed cases in Nigeria is worrisome vis-a-vis its large and dense population. This study aims at assessing the first 120 days of COVID-19 case confirmation in Nigeria.Methods: Data extracted from the World Bank’s website were used for the descriptive assessment and modelling of COVID-19 disease using the first 120 days of the index case in Nigeria and seven other countries. Linear, quadratic, cubic and exponential methods of regression model were used to fit the data (α=0.05).Results: The COVID-19 growth pattern in Nigeria was similar to that of Egypt, Ghana and Cameroun; Nigeria COVID-19's daily death distribution was comparable to six of the other seven countries considered. There was an increasing trend in the daily COVID-19 confirmed cases in Nigeria. During the lockdown, the growth rate of COVID-19 in Nigeria was 5.85 (R²=0.728, p2=0.625, pConclusions: An improvement in COVID-19 control measures and strict compliance with the COVID-19 recommended protocols are essential. A contingency plan is needed to provide care for the active cases in case the predicted target is realised.