Individualized prediction nomograms for disease progression in mild COVID‐19
- 17 May 2020
- journal article
- research article
- Published by Wiley in Journal of Medical Virology
- Vol. 92 (10), 2074-2080
- https://doi.org/10.1002/jmv.25969
Abstract
Background The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) has evolved into a pandemic rapidly. The majority of COVID‐19 patients are with mild syndromes. This study aimed to develop models for predicting disease progression in mild cases. Methods The risk factors for the requirement of oxygen support in mild COVID‐19 were explored using multivariate logistic regression. Nomogram as visualization of the models was developed using R software. Results A total of 344 patients with mild COVID‐19 were included in the final analysis, 45 of whom progressed and needed high‐flow oxygen therapy or mechanical ventilation after admission. There were 188 (54.7%) males, and the average age of the cohort was 52.9 ± 16.8 years. When the laboratory data were not included in multivariate analysis, diabetes, coronary heart disease, T >=38.5℃ and sputum were independent risk factors of progressive COVID‐19 (Model 1). When the blood routine test was included the CHD, T >=38.5℃ and NLR were found to be independent predictors (Model 2). The AUROC of model 2 was larger than model 1 (0.872 vs. 0.849, P =0.023). The negative predictive value of both models was greater than 96%, indicating they could serve as simple tools for ruling out the possibility of disease progression. Conclusions In conclusion, two models comprised common symptoms (fever and sputum), underlying diseases (diabetes and coronary heart disease) and blood routine test are developed for predicting the future requirement of oxygen support in mild COVID‐19 cases.This publication has 31 references indexed in Scilit:
- An Acute Respiratory Infection Runs Into the Most Common Noncommunicable Epidemic—COVID-19 and Cardiovascular DiseasesJAMA Cardiology, 2020
- From SARS to COVID-19: A previously unknown SARS- related coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) of pandemic potential infecting humans – Call for a One Health approachOne Health, 2020
- Clinical Characteristics of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in ChinaThe New England Journal of Medicine, 2020
- Strategies for the prevention and management of coronavirus disease 2019European Respiratory Journal, 2020
- Comparing cigarette smoking knowledge and attitudes among smokers and non-smokersEnvironmental Science and Pollution Research, 2020
- Case-Fatality Rate and Characteristics of Patients Dying in Relation to COVID-19 in ItalyJAMA, 2020
- Coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19): a guide for UK GPsBMJ, 2020
- A Real-world Prospective Study of Mother-to-child Transmission of HBV in China Using a Mobile Health Application (Shield 01)Journal of Clinical and Translational Hepatology, 2020
- Neutrophil–lymphocyte ratio as predictor of mortality and morbidity in cardiovascular surgery: a systematic reviewAnz Journal of Surgery, 2015
- Guidelines for the diagnosis and management of alcoholic liver disease: Update 2010Journal of Digestive Diseases, 2010