Dynamic analysis of source-based preferences: the case of imported beer in China

Abstract

Chinese beer consumption has undergone major changes within the last decade. The combination of a growing middle class and greater exposure to foreign products has resulted in a significant increase in beer imports. The authors examined transformations in this market and how beer preferences have changed over time. This study focuses on changes is origin-specific preferences (e.g. German beer and Mexican beer) as reflected by habit formation (i.e. dynamic consumption patterns) and changes in demand sensitivity to expenditure and prices. The authors estimated Chinese beer demand – differentiated by source – using a generalized dynamic demand model that accounted for habit formation and trends, as well as the immediate and long-run effects of expenditures and prices on demand. The authors employed a rolling regression procedure that allowed for model estimates to vary with time. Preference changes were inferred from the changing demand estimates, with a particular focus on changes in habit formation, expenditure allocating behaviour, and own-price responsiveness. Results suggest that Chinese beer preferences have changed significantly over the last decade, increasing for Mexican beer, Dutch beer and Belgian beer. German beer once dominated the Chinese market. However, all indicators suggest that German beer preferences are declining. Although China is the world's third largest beer importing country behind the United States and France. Few studies have focused on this market. While dynamic analyses of alcoholic beverage demand are not new, this is the first study to examine the dynamics of imported beer preferences in China and implications for exporting countries.