Approximate evaluation of the duration of the orbital motion of artificial Earth satellites taking into account light pressure

Abstract

A comprehensive research was conducted to establish the infl uence of solar pressure on the existence of artificial Earth satellites in their orbit. Six low-orbit satellites and one satellite with a high-elliptical orbit moving in orbit during 2001-2020 were selected for the study. We used the USSTRATCOM database of the satellites' orbital elements (http://www.space-track.org/), additional data were taken from CalSky (https://www.calsky.com) and TLEtools (https://tletools.readthedocs.io). Taking into account light pressure, we refined the calculation of the duration of a satellite's orbital motion, which we had performed earlier [M. M. Koval'chuk, Bull. Natl. Univ. Kyiv. Astron. 55, 39 (2017)], and clarified the moment of its destruction. Using the proposed method allowed us to reduce the difference between the calculated and the real lifetime of satellites: for low-orbit satellites, the difference between the calculated and the real time of their existence in orbit does not exceed +/- 1 day, for a satellite with a highly elliptical orbit it is +2 days. Such accuracy is sufficient to produce proper forecasts. Thus, consideration of light pressure gives a small correction in the calculations in the case of low-orbit satellites, but this correction can be significant for low-mass and large-surface objects moving in medium and high (geostationary) orbits [Ch. Lucking, C. Colombo, C. R. McInnes, Acta Astronaut. 77, 197 (2012)].