Prediction of Kidney Allograft Discard Before Procurement: The Kidney Discard Risk Index
- 1 March 2021
- journal article
- research article
- Published by Baskent University in Transplantation
- Vol. 19 (3), 204-211
- https://doi.org/10.6002/ect.2020.0340
Abstract
Objectives: There is an 18.9% discard rate among kidney allografts. Here, we aimed to determine predictors of kidney discard and construct an index to identify high-probability discard kidney allografts prior to procurement. Materials and Methods: A total of 102 246 potential kidney allograft donors from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network database were used in this analysis. The cohort was randomized into 2 groups. The training set included 67% of the cohort and was used to derive a predictive index for discard that comprised 21 factors identified by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis. The validation set included 33% and was used to internally validate the kidney discard risk index. Results: In 77.3% of donors, at least 1 kidney was used for transplant, whereas in 22.7% of donors, both kidneys were discarded. The kidney discard risk index was highly predictive of discard with a C statistic of 0.89 (0.88-0.89). The bottom 10th percentile had a discard rate of 0.73%, whereas the top 10th percentile had a discard rate of 83.65%. The 3 most predictive factors for discard were age, creatinine level, and hepatitis C antibody status. Conclusions: We identified 21 factors predictive of discard prior to donor procurement and used these to develop a kidney discard risk index with a C statistic of 0.89.This publication has 15 references indexed in Scilit:
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