Evaluating and Predicting the Effects of Land Use Changes on Hydrology in Wami River Basin, Tanzania
Open Access
- 19 March 2020
- Vol. 7 (1), 17
- https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology7010017
Abstract
Understanding the variation in the hydrological response of a basin associated with land use changes is essential for developing management strategies for water resources. The impact of hydrological changes caused by expected land use changes may be severe for the Wami river system, given its role as a crucial area for water, providing food and livelihoods. The objective of this study is to examine the influence of land use changes on various elements of the hydrological processes of the basin. Hybrid classification, which includes unsupervised and supervised classification techniques, is used to process the images (2000 and 2016), while CA–Markov chain analysis is used to forecast and simulate the 2032 land use state. In the current study, a combined approach—including a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and Partial Least Squares Regression (PLSR)—is used to explore the influences of individual land use classes on fluctuations in the hydrological components. From the study, it is evident that land use has changed across the basin since 2000 (which is expected to continue in 2032), as well as that the hydrological effects caused by land use changes were observed. It has been found that the major land use changes that affected hydrology components in the basin were expansion of cultivation land, built-up area and grassland, and decline in natural forests and woodland during the study period. These findings provide baseline information for decision-makers and stakeholders concerning land and water resources for better planning and management decisions in the basin resources’ use.Keywords
This publication has 76 references indexed in Scilit:
- Evaluation of Model Validation Techniques in Land Cover DynamicsISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information, 2013
- Impacts of land use change on watershed streamflow and sediment yield: An assessment using hydrologic modelling and partial least squares regressionJournal of Hydrology, 2013
- Trend analysis of runoff and sediment fluxes in the Upper Blue Nile basin: A combined analysis of statistical tests, physically-based models and landuse mapsJournal of Hydrology, 2013
- Effects of landuse change on surface runoff and sediment yield at different watershed scales on the Loess PlateauInternational Journal of Sediment Research, 2010
- Analysis and Modeling of Urban Land Cover Change in Setúbal and Sesimbra, PortugalRemote Sensing, 2010
- SWAT‐simulated hydrological impact of land‐use change in the Zanjanrood basin, Northwest IranHydrological Processes, 2009
- Impacts of land use change and climate variability on hydrology in an agricultural catchment on the Loess Plateau of ChinaJournal of Hydrology, 2009
- Impacts of environmental change on water resources in the Mt. Kenya regionJournal of Hydrology, 2007
- Increasing streamflow and baseflow in Mississippi River since the 1940s: Effect of land use changeJournal of Hydrology, 2006
- Monitoring land-cover changes: A comparison of change detection techniquesInternational Journal of Remote Sensing, 1999