Methodical approach to foresight-research at definition of trends in Green IT development

Abstract

The problem of determining the Green IT development strategy using decision support tools is described in the article. Technology Green IT is a typical result of the advanced technologies convergence, especially information and knowledge. The expediency of the foresight technology applying for the Green IT development perspective directions evaluating is shown. It is indicated that the most critical, in this case, is the stage of forming the initial list of directions. The technology of retrospective analysis of the Green IT development based on the parametric synthesis of the predictive model of exponential smoothing under the conditions of data uncertainty is presented. For the implementation of the parametric analysis of Brown’s predictive model, or exponential smoothing, is used the exponential average value of the stationary time series to evaluate its value at the next time point. The applying of the developed technology provides experts with additional volumes of information about the perspectives for the Green IT development. An example of a retrospective analysis of the Green IT development directions is given. The initial data for the retrospective analysis used the number of scientific publications for the period from 2010 to 2015 in Ukraine, which characterizes the Green IT direction development. The following directions were assessed: green software engineering, software ecosystem, energy-saving green software and green telecommunications. As a result, the most promising direction is green software engineering. The results of the analysis are one of the sources of information for assessing the perspectives for the Green IT development directions by experts