A clinically practical radiomics-clinical combined model based on PET/CT data and nomogram predicts EGFR mutation in lung adenocarcinoma

Abstract

Objectives This study aims to develop a clinically practical model to predict EGFR mutation in lung adenocarcinoma patients according to radiomics signatures based on PET/CT and clinical risk factors. Methods This retrospective study included 583 lung adenocarcinoma patients, including 295 (50.60%) patients with EGFR mutation and 288 (49.40%) patients without EGFR mutation. The clinical risk factors associated with lung adenocarcinoma were collected at the same time. We developed PET/CT, CT, and PET radiomics models for the prediction of EGFR mutation using multivariate logistic regression analysis, respectively. We also constructed a combined PET/CT radiomics-clinical model by nomogram analysis. The diagnostic performance and clinical net benefit of this risk-scoring model were examined via receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis while the clinical usefulness of this model was evaluated by decision curve analysis (DCA). Results The ROC analysis showed predictive performance for the PET/CT radiomics model (AUC = 0.76), better than the PET model (AUC = 0.71, Delong test: Z = 3.03, p value = 0.002) and the CT model (AUC = 0.74, Delong test: Z = 1.66, p value = 0.098). Also, the PET/CT radiomics-clinical combined model has a better performance (AUC = 0.84) to predict EGFR mutation than the PET/CT radiomics model (AUC = 0.76, Delong test: D = 2.70, df = 790.81, p value < 0.001) or the clinical model (AUC = 0.81, Delong test: Z = 3.46, p value < 0.001). Conclusions We demonstrated that the combined PET/CT radiomics-clinical model has an advantage to predict EGFR mutation in lung adenocarcinoma. Key Points • Radiomics from lung tumor increase the efficiency of the prediction for EGFR mutation in clinical lung adenocarcinoma on PET/CT. • A radiomic nomogram was developed to predict EGFR mutation. • Combining PET/CT radiomics-clinical model has an advantage to predict EGFR mutation.