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Moving Average Convergence-Divergence (MACD) Trading Rule: An Application in Nepalese Stock Market "NEPSE"

Rashesh Vaidya
Quantitative Economics and Management Studies , Volume 1, pp 366-374; doi:10.35877/454ri.qems197

Abstract: There are two types of analysis done for a stock market. One is fundamental analysis, where an investor looks at an intrinsic value of the stock, and another is technical analysis, where investors determine the future trend of the market looking at the current pattern or trend of the market. This paper is focused on one of the technical analysis tools, i.e., Moving Average Convergence-Divergence. It is a tool based on the three exponential moving average (9-12-26 EMA Rule). The MACD analysis, with the help of a single line, was helpful to find out the exact bullish and the bearish trend of the Nepse. A signal line is a benchmark to determine the stock market moving either to a bullish or bearish trend. It can help an investor, where the market is going in a direction. A market convergence, divergence, and crossover were better identified with the help of the MACD histogram. The paper found that the Nepse return was stable for a very minimal period from 1998-99 to 2019-20. The shift from the bullish to bearish or vice-verse were seen easily identified with the help of a MACD histogram. Finally, a better-combined knowledge of moving average and candlestick chart analysis will help an investor, to put a clear picture of a market trend with the help of MACD analysis.
Keywords: investor / Convergence / Divergence / stock market / moving / MACD / Nepse / pattern or trend

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