On Exports and Economic Growth: Revisiting Export-Led Growth Hypothesis Including North-South Divide

Abstract

Objective: The purpose of the present study is to revisit the export-led growth hypothesis in the wake of globalization. This will help in trade policy decisions and make it possible to standpoint whether the export promotion is a good idea to accelerate economic growth. Design: The ELG hypothesis is examined for 107 countries through panel data analysis using cointegration and panel regression tests from 1990 to 2018. The study finds strong support for the long-run relationship between exports and gross domestic product and the export-led growth hypothesis in a two-variable regression framework. Findings: It is evident from the long-run coefficient of dynamic ordinary least squared that a 1.0 percent increase in real exports increases the real gross domestic product by 0.53 percent. The long-run coefficient of real exports for the Global South (0.55) is found higher than that of the Global North (0.51), which indicates that in the wave of globalization, the evidence of export-led growth hypothesis is stronger for comparatively poor Global South than the richer Global North. Practical Implications: The results indicate implications for export promotion policy in the Global South countries to accelerate economic growth and increase real gross domestic product. Originality: The study is the first to explore the ELG hypothesis using a big pool of 107 countries, including the global north-south divide.