Socioeconomic Effects of Ambitious Climate Mitigation Policies in Germany

Abstract

The EU Commission has introduced the instrument of National Energy and Climate Plans (NECP) to better achieve energy and climate policy targets. In Germany, a comprehensive study was commissioned for this purpose. Its methods and main results are presented here. It starts with a set of energy system models that maps the necessary changes in the energy system, together with corresponding measures bottom-up. The results then enter the PANTA RHEI macroeconometric top-down model as scenario inputs to determine the socioeconomic effects. According to the bottom-up models, achieving the target of 55% GHG reduction by 2030 will not be easy. The macroeconomic effects are mostly positive. Driven by additional investment, GDP and the number of jobs will be higher than in the baseline. The construction and service sectors can benefit from energy and climate policy measures. The share of final consumer expenditures on energy in GDP declines by 2030 compared to today. However, the direction and magnitude of the effects are not undisputed in the literature. The results show that ambitious climate policies are possible in Germany, which can also improve the achievement of economic and social goals.