Stock Valuation of Indonesia Pharmaceutical Company with COVID-19 Vaccination Development Prospects Amidst Pandemic Situation (Case Study of PT. Kalbe Farma, Tbk.)

Abstract

As one of the world’s most populous countries with a fast-growing economy, Indonesia's market for pharmaceuticals has become very promising. COVID-19 pandemic that outbroken since early 2020 has brought a huge impact on the overall country condition while at the same time stimulate the growth of the pharmaceutical market as it is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 6.3% between 2016 and 2021 according to IQVIA. This situation creates a reaction in the stock market especially of pharmaceutical companies that experienced an average increase of 67% since last year with its key driver of news regarding the distribution of Sinovac vaccine by some state-owned pharma companies as part of the national vaccination program. PT. Kalbe Farma, Tbk as one of the largest pharma companies in Indonesia is also accounting a positive growth over the years while also presented with bright prospects as a result of its strategic initiatives to collaborate with South Korea in developing COVID-19 vaccine and medication, named Genexine which is planned to be completed in Q3 2021. The possibility of success in this project might affect the company’s stock performance since it would result in bigger profitability for the company. In order to help investors to make a decision in this situation, the intrinsic value of the company stock is required. Therefore, conducting absolute and relative valuation are believed to be important in order to find the intrinsic value. This study examined absolute valuation using FCFF model and relative valuation using P/E and EV/EBITDA for KLBF. Result of the valuation suggested that the current stock price of IDR 1,445 is overvalued. The intrinsic value calculated from FCFF model is IDR 1,397 and based on the relative valuation models are IDR 1,330 and IDR 1,233 for EV/EBITDA and P/E ratio, respectively.