Temporal Stability of Vegetation Cover across the Loess Plateau Based on GIMMS during 1982–2013

Abstract

The Loess Plateau, covering approximately 640,000 km², has experienced the most severe soil erosion in the world. A greening tendency has been noticed since implementing the Grain to Green Program (GTGP), which may prevent further soil erosion. Therefore, understanding the underpinning basis of greening stability and persistence is important for sustainable improvement. Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) datasets for 1982–2013 were used to investigate the temporal stability and persistent time (PT) of vegetation over the Loess Plateau, utilizing the coefficient of variation (CV) and the estimation of tendencies of vegetation greening starting from the selected reference conditions. Two periods from 1982 to 1999 (as the reference period) and 2000 to 2013 were selected by considering the GTGP since 1999. The results indicate that: (1) A significant increase in vegetation cover occurred in the low NDVI area (NDVI < 0.3), with a high fluctuation from 2000 to 2013 compared with the reference period. Moreover, the fluctuation in vegetation is more related to precipitation variation since 1999. (2) Most areas recovered in the greening trend of the first period starting in 2009, occurring in 28.7% (2628 of 9148) of the total area. (3) The revegetated areas have a low PT and a high $C{V}_{vi}$, that is, the revegetated areas need a long time to recover from disturbances. Therefore, we identify the sensitive areas with PT = 4; further management needs to be implemented for sustainable development in these areas. These results provide a method to quantify the stability and persistence of the complex interactions between vegetation greenness and environmental changes, particularly in fragile areas.