Assimilation Impact of Different GPS Analysis Methods on Precipitation Forecast: A Heavy Rainfall Case Study of Kani City, Gifu Prefecture on July 15, 2010
- 27 September 2017
- journal article
- Published by Fuji Technology Press Ltd. in Journal of Disaster Research
- Vol. 12 (5), 944-955
- https://doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2017.p0944
Abstract
In this study, we examined variations in predicted precipitable water produced from different Global Positioning System (GPS) zenith delay methods, and assessed the corresponding difference in predicted rainfall after assimilating the obtained precipitable water data. Precipitable water data estimated from the GPS and three-dimensional horizontal wind velocity field derived from the X-band dual polarimetric radar were assimilated in CReSS and rainfall forecast experiments were conducted for the heavy rainfall system in Kani City, Gifu Prefecture on July 15, 2010. In the GPS analysis, a method to simultaneously estimate coordinates and zenith delay, i.e., the simultaneous estimation method, and a method to successively estimate coordinates and zenith delay, i.e., the successive estimation method, were used to estimate precipitable water. The differences generated from using predicted orbit data provided in pseudo-real time from the International GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) Service for geodynamics (IGS) versus precise orbit data released after a 10-day delay were examined. The change in precipitable water due to varying the analysis methods was larger than that due to the type of satellite orbit information. In the rainfall forecast experiments, those using the successive estimation method results had a better precision than those using the simultaneous estimation method results. Both methods that included data assimilation had higher rainfall forecast precisions than the forecast precision without precipitable water assimilation. Water vapor obtained from GPS analysis is accepted as important in rainfall forecasting, but the present study showed additional improvements can be attained from incorporating a zenith delay analysis method.Keywords
This publication has 13 references indexed in Scilit:
- Estimation of Local-scale Precipitable Water Vapor Distribution Around Each GNSS Station Using Slant Path DelaySOLA, 2014
- A Numerical Study on a Mesoscale Convective System over a Subtropical Island with 4D-Var Assimilation of GPS Slant Total DelaysJournal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. Ser. II, 2013
- Mesoscale Data Assimilation of Myanmar Cyclone Nargis Part II: Assimilation of GPS-Derived Precipitable Water VaporJournal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. Ser. II, 2011
- A Study of Near Real-time Water Vapor Analysis Using a Nationwide Dense GPS Network of JapanJournal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. Ser. II, 2009
- Structure and Formation Mechanism on the 24 May 2000 Supercell-Like Storm Developing in a Moist Environment over the Kanto Plain, JapanMonthly Weather Review, 2008
- The Operational JMA Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale ModelMonthly Weather Review, 2006
- Impacts of GPS-derived Water Vapor and Radial Wind Measured by Doppler Radar on Numerical Prediction of PrecipitationJournal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. Ser. II, 2004
- Data Assimilation of GPS Precipitable Water Vapor into the JMA Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction Model and its Impact on Rainfall ForecastsJournal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. Ser. II, 2004
- Impact of GPS and TMI Precipitable Water Data on Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction Model ForecastsJournal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. Ser. II, 2004
- Large-Scale Parallel Computing of Cloud Resolving Storm SimulatorLecture Notes in Computer Science, 2002