HCV Genetic Diversity Can Be Used to Infer Infection Recency and Time since Infection

Abstract

HIV-1 genetic diversity can be used to infer time since infection (TSI) and infection recency. We adapted this approach for HCV and identified genomic regions with informative diversity. We included 72 HCV/HIV-1 coinfected participants of the Swiss HIV Cohort Study, for whom reliable estimates of infection date and viral sequences were available. Average pairwise diversity (APD) was calculated over each codon position for the entire open reading frame of HCV. Utilizing cross validation, we evaluated the correlation of APD with TSI, and its ability to infer TSI via a linear model. We additionally studied the ability of diversity to classify infections as recent (infected for 2 = 0.33) and could predict TSI (mean absolute error = 1.67 years). Restricting the region over which APD was calculated to E2-NS2 further improved accuracy (ROC-AUC = 0.85, R² = 0.54, mean absolute error = 1.38 years). Genetic diversity in HCV correlates with TSI and is a proxy for infection recency and TSI, even several years post-infection.