Vegetation biomass change in China in the 20th century: an assessment based on a combination of multi-model simulations and field observations
Open Access
- 20 May 2020
- journal article
- research article
- Published by IOP Publishing in Environmental Research Letters
- Vol. 15 (9), 094026
- https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab94e8
Abstract
Vegetation biomass is a key and active component of the carbon cycle. Though China's vegetation biomass in recent decades has been widely investigated, only two studies have quantitatively assessed its century-scale changes so far and reported totally opposite trends. This study provided the first multi-model estimates of China's vegetation biomass change for the 20th century and its responses to historical changes in environmental and anthropogenic factors, based on simulations evaluated with the field observations from 3757 inventory plots in China and bias-corrected using machine learning (Gaussian process regression). A significant decline in vegetation biomass over the 20th century was shown by bias-corrected simulations from the six Dynamic Global Vegetation models (DGVMs) with trends ranging from –32.48 to –11.10 Tg C yr–1 and a mean trend of –17.74 Tg C yr–1. Land use and land cover change (LULCC) was primarily responsible for the simulated downward trend (–50.71 to –24.28 Tg C yr–1), while increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration lead to increased vegetation biomass (+9.27 to +13.37 Tg C yr–1). Climate change had limited impacts on the long-term trend (–3.75 to +5.06 Tg C yr–1). This study highlights the importance of LULCC for historical reconstruction and future projection of vegetation biomass over China. It also suggests that the incorrect change in China's forest area for 1980–2000 in the LULCC dataset used as model input data of many existing and ongoing model intercomparison projects (MIPs) has likely led to inaccurate estimations of historical vegetation biomass changes in China.Funding Information
- National Key Research and Development Program of China (2017YFA0604302)
- National Natural Science Foundation of China (41475099)
This publication has 60 references indexed in Scilit:
- Recent Changes in Terrestrial Gross Primary Productivity in Asia from 1982 to 2011Remote Sensing, 2013
- The role of carbon flux and biometric observations in constraining a terrestrial ecosystem model: a case study in disturbed forests in East AsiaEcological Research, 2013
- Representation of natural and anthropogenic land cover change in MPI‐ESMJournal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 2013
- Robustness and uncertainty in terrestrial ecosystem carbon response to CMIP5 climate change projectionsEnvironmental Research Letters, 2012
- Harmonization of land-use scenarios for the period 1500–2100: 600 years of global gridded annual land-use transitions, wood harvest, and resulting secondary landsClimatic Change, 2011
- Contribution of climate change and rising CO2 to terrestrial carbon balance in East Asia: A multi-model analysisGlobal and Planetary Change, 2011
- A dynamic global vegetation model for studies of the coupled atmosphere‐biosphere systemGlobal Biogeochemical Cycles, 2005
- ?New Estimates of Carbon Storage and Sequestration in China?S Forests: Effects of Age?Class and Method On Inventory-Based Carbon Estimation?Climatic Change, 2004
- Sources and sinks of carbon from land‐use change in ChinaGlobal Biogeochemical Cycles, 2003
- An integrated biosphere model of land surface processes, terrestrial carbon balance, and vegetation dynamicsGlobal Biogeochemical Cycles, 1996